Good News and Bad News

There was good news and bad news in Washington today. The good news is that the Congressional Budget Office predicted that over the next ten years annual budget deficits will shrink by $3.3 trillion. The bad news is that, despite the savings, those deficits are predicted to total roughly $3.5 trillion over that same span. The debt now stands at $14.6 trillion. Even if deficits shrink as the CBO predicts, they are not going to go away. The debt will continue to grow. It is expected that the debt will increase by $8.5 trillion over the next ten years. Deficits aren't really a problem. Borrowing money is painless. It is paying off debt that hurts.

Many in Washington, particularly those in the White House, are no doubt pleased by the news. It is proof that they are effectively addressing the situation. Their steps to reduce the deficit are working, or at least are predicted to work (you never know if you will need another bail out or stimulus package). Of course, the news is only good news if you ignore the larger situation and simply consider less of a deficit a good thing. It is predicted, I would say it is certain, that massive federal spending will continue unabated. Cuts will be made and savings will be found but they will in no way be sufficient to stop the financial bleeding. The debt will continue to go up. As the debt goes up the costs of carrying that debt will go up. Interest on the debt cost the U.S. $202 billion last year. Even in Washington that is a lot of money.

If the CBO predictions are borne out we are still looking at yearly deficits of nearly $350 billion over the next decade. That is not good news. The debt is the real problem, not deficits. Deficits can be easily, if painfully, taken care of. The government is perfectly capable of passing a balanced budget. They are simply unwilling to. The reason they are unwilling to is that it would amount to collective political suicide. That is why the debt will continue to go up.

There is a third way to address deficits apart from raising taxes or cutting spending. That is to hold government spending flat and wait for the economy to catch up. That option is nearly as bad to elected officials as the first two. While not quite as bad as cutting spending or raising taxes, it would mean saying no to interest groups and voters.

The debt is an economic issue, but it above all else a political issue. It is the politics of spending that drive the problem. Politicians like to spend. Arguably, they need to spend if they want to be reelected. They are compelled to support spending desired by their constituents. It is the very nature of their job. They are also driven by ego. They want libraries with their name on it. The want the gratitude of their constituents. They want the grandeur of being responsible bridges, harbors, and highways. They want history to know who they were and what they have done. The rely on the largess of government to achieve those ends. Getting Johnny a recommendation to West Point or a smoothing over a constituent's social security problem is no longer enough. Projects are needed. Money must be distributed.

Any solution to the debt crisis will involve members of Congress telling their constituents how much more they will have to pay, what they cannot have, and worse, what they will lose. That is the real problem behind addressing the debt. The vanity and ego of politicians only contributes to it.

So, the good news out of Washington is that deficits are likely to decrease. The bad news is that they are not going to disappear. Even if the economy rebounds, unless there is a dramatic increase in revenue or a historical cut in spending, the debt is going to continue going up: just more slowly than anticipated. I suppose less of a bad thing can be a good thing if you look at it just the right way.

Traps and Snares

Unease is growing in the nation with the mounting national debt. Tension is Washington is rising as Republicans and Democrats try to find agreement on what to do about it. Democrats persist in arguing for the need to increase revenue, something they should have thought of before they went on a spending spree. Republicans insist on cutting spending. The zealous in both camps are reluctant to compromise even though, by most accounts, without a compromise nothing will be done. Meanwhile, the debt clock is ticking. If the debt limit is not raised by August the United States could go into default.

So badly have the talks gone so far that Republicans have walked out on negotiations. Their prospects are looking increasingly poor. They have refused to consider any tax increases. They are making a stand on cutting spending. The Democrats have expressed willingness to cut spending but only over the long term and in conjunction with increased revenue, i.e., higher taxes. Score one for the Democrats. Their willingness to "compromise" portrays them as pragmatic and flexible while the Republicans' principled opposition casts them as rigid and doctrinaire, even in the face of catastrophe. If the Republicans persist in their objections it is likely they will be seen as the ones responsible for any financial collapse. After all, if a deal is not reached it would be because the Republicans refused to budge. Should budget talks break down it is quite possible that the Republicans will be left holding the bag. That is the trap.

The Republicans came to victory in the last election largely due to their opposition to higher taxes and government spending. To give in to any tax increase or go soft on government spending would be to give up their single greatest weapon and undermine virtually everything they ran on. If they accede to a budget compromise that raises taxes or fails to reduce spending in any significant way what will they be able to run on in 2012? If government spending is firmly taken into hand republicans will be able to acquiesce to some tax increases. They might even burnish themselves and gain a touch of political responsibility for doing so. But in the absence of any significant cuts in spending the only result of a tax increase will be to allow the government to continue in its profligacy. In that event Republicans will have accomplished nothing. They will have abandoned their principals simply in order to buy some time. That is the snare Republicans face.

Democrats have few good options themselves. To unilaterally proceed to raise taxes would be to take the ire of voters upon themselves. To give in on spending would jeopardize their standing with the many millions of Americans who count upon government spending, not just to keep themselves above water, but for their livelihoods as well. There is also the more subtle threat reduced spending poses to progressives. To reduce federal spending is to hinder federal power. Without the velvet glove of money, only the iron gauntlet of law remains.

When it comes to raising taxes, republicans and democrats are in very different positions. Democrats can raise taxes without jeopardizing their political base. Republicans cannot. Because of this, democrats have more room to maneuver on the issue. Democrats can support increased taxes and keep their base content, as long as those taxes fall on the usual suspects. Republicans do not have that luxury. Most republicans oppose higher taxes of any kind. Unless a deal can be reached where only democrats will pay higher taxes, republicans will need something big to abandon their anti tax position. Simply keeping the government running will not be enough. If Congress cannot step up and do something to avert a train wreck perhaps Republicans should consider just getting out of the way.

The real test of the political resolve to address the debt will come in the fall of 2012. That is when we will learn how determined politicians are to tell the public the truth about spending and find out how willing the public is to accept what it will take to get the national debt under control.

Many years ago I learned the lesson that the first thing you should do if you find yourself in a hole is stop digging. Just digging more slowly won't help. That is a lesson that Congress and the president need to learn.

Getting to a Real Discussion Over Abortion

A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine reported significant progress has been made in prenatal surgery in the struggle against spina bifida. Over 1,500 children a year are born with it. Spina bifida is a condition where the spinal cord does not fully close and, among other things, can lead to paralysis. The study was warmly welcomed by scientists, researchers, and doctors. Dr. Terry Buchmiller, former Chief Resident in Pediatric Surgery at the Children's Hospital in Boston, stated that it culminated a "wonderful, almost several decade journey of trying to improve the outcome of a debilitating condition". She went on to herald the procedure as "potentially life changing." Others applauded it as a promising step in the evolving field of prenatal surgery.

There has been great effort put into treating children in the womb. One of the most significant advances in the field has been prenatal surgery. Researchers and doctors have long labored to find ways to treat children and correct their problems before they are born. Fetal surgery offers hope. Not only does it offer hope to children facing the challenge of spina bifida, it also holds promise of treating neurological problems as well as bladder defects and sickle cell anemia. It is anticipated that as the field develops, other conditions and disorders will be treatable before birth. In the case of treating spina bifida, the results were so good that the study was halted early so that the procedure could be adopted immediately.

As prenatal medicine evolves, women contemplating aborting their still developing children due to serious medical concerns have hope. The painful choice between giving birth to a child who will face a lifetime of serious, and at times difficult, challenges and terminating that child will become less common as the threat of those challenges diminishes. As a result, the decision whether to give birth will become easier for some and more complicated for others.

For those who want to give birth, the decision will be easier because their child will likely face fewer challenges over the course of their lives. Indeed, some children will face no challenge at all. For those inclined to abort a handicapped baby, (or fetus if you prefer), the decision whether to abort will be more difficult as they must weigh the potential burden of a disability against the promise provided by advancing medical science. As prenatal care advances, physical deformity and other challenges will no longer be the the threat they once were. Less and less will they be reasons for terminating a pregnancy. For those who are merely harboring a fetus, prenatal medicine is irrelevant.

As doctors increasingly become able to treat children in the womb, the reasons for having an abortion will become fewer. If the day ever comes when the only reason for having an abortion is because a woman simply does not want the child, the argument over abortion will have reached its core. On that day we will finally be able to have a real discussion over the issue.

It is a strange world indeed where some doctors labor to treat children in the womb while other doctors endeavor to destroy them.