The window of opportunity for the U.S. to remake the Middle East is closing steadily. We have invaded and overthrown the governments of two nations in the region and bombed a third one out of its palaces. We are working diligently to undermine the governments of Syria and Iran. We have expressed our ideas of what the new regime in Egypt should look like only to find that vision is not shared by as many Egyptians as we had hoped. Iraqis and Afghans have already wearied of our presence. Elections in Gaza have proved absolutely no help at all. After the initial promise events offered, the dust is settling and the region is starting to become opaque to our ambitions. Where popular governments have been established, groups not enamored with U.S. values or overly sympathetic to our goals for the region are asserting themselves. We might have governments we can work for the moment but one election or uprising can change that.
At some point Arabs and Muslims might tire or even come to resent our military actions, our meddling, and our attempts to transform the region. Should that day comes we will once again find ourselves with few friends in the Middle East. Worse, we will find a Muslim world in search of new allies and supporters likely to be unsympathetic to U.S. ambitions. Whether it be India, China or worst of all Iran, many, not just in the Middle East but elsewhere too, would likely welcome the opportunity to do business free from sanctimonious posturing and the incessant prodding and poking that attends dealing with the U.S.
The U.S. is working hard to preserve the fig leaf of international support, but the efforts being made to constrain Iran and shape events in the Middle East are clearly of U.S. origin and in our interests. While the U.S. has decried Iranian actions, and asserts it is acting in the interests of the international community, Ukraine and India have signed lucrative deals with Iran to develop new oil fields and China is becoming increasingly reliant on Iranian oil. As it stands, Iran is China's second largest supplier of oil and China needs more oil everyday. Clearly there are many in the international community who do not share the U.S.'s alarm in regard to Iran.
The rise of China is increasingly giving the world an option of where to do business. Its military prowess is increasing and its global reach is expanding in conjunction with its interests, to say nothing of its wealth. Should the day come when the Chinese yuan replaces the U.S. dollar as a global currency the U.S. will be that much closer to being in second place as a world power.
China will never replace the U.S. as Israel's benefactor but it can replace the U.S. as a broker for peace in the region. As China's energy demand grows its interests in the Middle East will grow along with it. There it will find a host of increasingly disgruntled nations happy to do business with it. That will be a considerable advantage to China as it seeks new sources of energy and markets to feed its growing economy. China's idea of what a stable Middle East would look like might be different from ours. If India's economy continues to expand that will up the stakes even more. At least we will always have Israel, even if our markets shrivel and the world turns against us. For many in the U.S., that is enough.
People with causes such as those looking to assert their rights, advance their interests, or overthrow their governments, as well as sympathetic regimes attempting to cling to power might continue to turn to the U.S. for support, but everyone else will soon have a choice, not just in which direction to align themselves, but worse for the U.S., where to do business. I am sure at some point in the foreseeable future, a Chinese contract or naval base will be every bit the political and economic boon that a U.S. base is. Maybe more since it would come without the political baggage of a U.S. base. And when that day comes there will be at least one region in the world likely to welcome that choice.
China has every bit as much interest in a stable Middle East as the U.S. does. Should it develop a different idea of how to go about ensuring a stable Middle East than the U.S., things in the region could become even more complicated than they are now. It has already expressed its unease at the growing Western pressure on Iran and understandably so. General Zhang Zhoazhing, a professor at China's National Defense University, has stated that China "will not hesitate to protect Iran." Whether or not General Zhoazhing's statement reflects the policy of China's government it does reflect growing concern in China over U.S. policy in the Middle East. In addition to its large and growing economic stake in the region, China has ample experience of what it is like to be an object of U.S. containment strategies and economic pressure.
The last time any nation in the Middle East had a choice of where to cast its lot was when the USSR existed. Most of them chose the USSR. The next time Arab nations have a choice we cannot expect them to choose us. That might help explain the urgency with which we working to overthrow governments in the region that have been historically inimical to U.S. interests and replace them with regimes more sympathetic to our goals. Sixty four years ago the U.S. lost the Middle East by throwing its
support behind the new nation of Israel. Through its inability to view
the Middle East other than through the prism of Israeli interests the
U.S. risks losing it again.
