Forward to the Past

According to news reports, the situation in Egypt is becoming more volatile each day. Despite the military's heavy hand, things are getting worse as the opposition reorganizes and turns toward a resumption of violence. For this, the Egyptian military has no one to blame but itself. They have given the Muslim opposition every reason for violence. The Brotherhood cannot take its grievances to the ballot box because the new government has outlawed it. By toppling the elected government and outlawing protest, the military has made criminals and terrorists of those who oppose its rule. If the military had acted more prudently, much of the turmoil could have been averted. Egypt could simply have waited out the Brotherhood. If the Army had just acted to preserve the integrity of electoral process rather than seizing power, things likely would be settled at the next election. Certainly, things would have been turbulent, but so long as the electoral process was kept intact, nothing the Brotherhood could have done would be irreversible. Should the Brotherhood have proven to be as incompetent and divisive as its critics claim it is, they would have been voted out and discredited as a political force. But the military chose not to wait. They decided to act and to act forcefully. They deposed the government and quickly pushed through a new constitution assuring the military's place atop Egypt's political order.

Even though the new government declared the group a terrorist organization last month and brought a heavy and down upon its head, Muslim Brotherhood supporters have continued their protests. The government refuses to relent and has gone so far as to threaten to arrest anyone who attends Muslim Brotherhood protests or provides financial support to the organization. Because of the military's actions, the Muslim opposition has no political options and therefore every reason to shun the political process and non violent opposition. They can point to the coup and the subsequent crackdown on their leaders and party as proof that democracy doesn't work and force is the only way to achieve change. The current government can point to popular opposition to Brotherhood rule as the reason for their action but the fact is that the military acted to preserve its power, privilege, and position. If nothing else, the decision by Assisi to run for president and the expansion of the crackdown to include other, non Islamic opposition groups confirms the determination of the Egyptian military to maintain its position as the paramount power in Egypt regardless of the changing political landscape.

Assisi's decision to run for president also confirms that the military has no intention of entrusting the government of Egypt to the people. Assisi will win and the military will remain astride the government and poised to act wherever and whenever it sees fit. Yet, it was decades of military rule that kept Egypt a politically ossified, economically stagnant, second world nation. With the military's take over, it is unrealistic to assume anything will change. That is not really a problem for the U.S., hence our cautious and measured response to the military takeover. A politically centralized, economically and socially moribund Egypt is to our advantage because it makes it predictable and dependent. Democratic regimes have frequently proven to be precarious and unreliable partners to U.S. goals in the region and require more resources and diplomatic finesse than we would prefer to apply. We will cluck about restoring democracy and protecting civil liberties but we will not apply any significant pressure on the government in Cairo. We will issue statements but our admonishments to restore popular rule will be subordinated to our homage to order and stability.

Giddy at their success after so long in the wilderness, the Brotherhood overreached. But, rather than rebuking or checking the Brotherhood, the military decided instead to crush it, and, by all accounts, it is achieving its goals. But by pushing the Muslim Brotherhood out of power and back underground the Egyptian military is making the Brotherhood once again unaccountable to the people of Egypt and free to brood and plot in secrecy. More importantly, it has freed the Brotherhood from the burden of creating, which has always been a far more difficult task than destroying. Out of power, they will be on familiar ground. The Brotherhood has a great deal of experience as an underground group operating in the shadows. They will be abandoning their weakness and returning to their strength. Egypt's generals can be thanked for that.